Regarding "US jobless rate falls to 7.8 pct., 44-month low", to nobody's amazement, the Obama Administration paradoxically reports that the unemployment rate "declined from 8.1 percent because the number of people who said they were employed soared by 873,000", even though out of the other side of their mouths they report that employers added only 114,000 jobs. To explain the colossal disconnect in those numbers, it's important to understand two things:
- First, the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) does not count actual jobs created and lost; they do surveys and report what people tell them. This leaves the validity of the numbers at the mercy of the sampling process.
- Second, the size of that survey sample is around 60,000 households, ironic in that the article stated unequivocally that 873,000 people told them they were now magically employed.
These are the reasons the Obama Administration can constantly cook the books, and is the basis for a 2.2% "drop" in unemployment in the past three years, even though 23 million have been reported as unemployed or underemployed in that time. But let's take the Obama administration's logic at face value: If 114,000 new jobs causes the unemployment rate to drop .2%, then a measly 4.5 million jobs created will drop the unemployment rate to 0%, which would - by his reasoning - cause 18.5 million folks with no jobs to cease to exist.
The real source of amazement is the willingness of the Media to report these numbers - month after month - with a straight face, particularly since this is the last employment poll before the election. I wait with bated breath for the Chronicle Editorial section to express some skepticism.
Pete Smith
Cypress
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